The Bondi Beach Attack (December 14, 2025)

15 Murdered (excluding attacker)
40 Injured
59 Criminal charges filed
4 IEDs brought to scene
6 Firearms used

Akram brought four IEDs to Bondi Beach. None detonated. The six firearms he used were registered to his father, Sajid Akram.

Source: Supreme Court of Victoria [2025] VSC 832.

ASIO Investigation of Naveed Akram

Oct 2019 Investigation opened
6 months Investigation duration
6 years Surveillance gap
0 Times on terrorism watchlist

ASIO opened an investigation into Akram in October 2019 following the arrest of the El Matari cell, with which he had associations. Six months later, in April 2020, the investigation closed. Finding: "no indication of ongoing threat." Akram was never placed on a terrorism watchlist. Six years passed between the conclusion of ASIO's investigation and the attack.

Source: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese public statements and ABC News reporting.

ASIO Threat Level Changes

Sept 2014 Raised to PROBABLE
Nov 28, 2022 Lowered to POSSIBLE
Aug 2024 Raised to PROBABLE
37 months Downgrade period before Bondi

Australia's national terrorism threat level was raised to PROBABLE in September 2014 during the peak of the ISIS caliphate. On November 28, 2022, ASIO lowered the threat level to POSSIBLE. The "ISIS threat had dissipated, not disappeared." Bondi happened 37 months later. In August 2024, after IRGC-linked attacks on Jewish targets, the threat level was raised back to PROBABLE.

During the downgrade period, ASIO's caseload composition shifted toward right-wing extremism: from 10% in 2014, to 33% in 2020, to 50% by late 2021. In February 2025, ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess declared antisemitism the organisation's "number one priority"—the first time any form of racism had held this designation in ASIO's history.

Antisemitism in Australia

316% Increase in incidents (2024 vs baseline)
491% Increase in physical assaults
2,062 Total incidents (Oct 2023–Sept 2024)
1,654 Total incidents (Oct 2024–Sept 2025)
3,700+ Two-year total post-Oct 7
342 Pre-Oct 7 annual average

After October 7, antisemitic incidents in Australia increased dramatically. In 2024, incidents rose 316% compared to the pre-October 7 baseline. Physical assaults increased 491%—from 11 victims to 65 victims. The first year following October 7 (Oct 2023–Sept 2024) saw 2,062 incidents. The second year (Oct 2024–Sept 2025) recorded 1,654 incidents—still approximately five times the historical baseline.

Two-year total exceeds 3,700 incidents. Pre-October 7 annual average: 342.

Source: Executive Council of Australian Jewry (ECAJ) Annual Reports on Antisemitism in Australia. Note: The author questions the methodology employed by ECAJ. No inter-rater reliability data has been published for incident classification, and unlike in the United Kingdom, United States, Germany, and France, these figures are not independently verified by government agencies.

IRGC Attacks on Jewish Targets (October–December 2024)

~A$1M Lewis Continental Kitchen damage
~A$45M Adass Israel Synagogue damage
29 Arrests (Strike Force Pearl)
143 Charges filed
0 Deaths

Between October and December 2024, two major attacks on Jewish targets in Australia were attributed to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran, operating through criminal proxies. On October 20, 2024, the Lewis Continental Kitchen in Sydney was firebombed—approximately A$1 million in damage. On December 6, 2024, the Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne was set on fire—approximately A$45 million in damage. Combined: roughly A$46 million in property damage. No deaths.

NSW Police established Strike Force Pearl. 29 arrests. 143 charges. Deputy Commissioner Hudson: "None of the individuals we have arrested have displayed any form of antisemitic ideology." The attacks were characterised as state-sponsored terrorism conducted through organised crime networks rather than ideologically motivated antisemitism.

Attribution to the IRGC resulted in the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador from Australia—the first such expulsion since World War II.

Sydney ISIS Network — Sentencing Data

8 Individuals sentenced
14–21 Age range at offence

Sentencing outcomes for members of the Sydney ISIS network:

Name Total Sentence Non-Parole Period (NPP) Age at Offence Notes
El Matari 7y 4m 5y 6m 19–20
Uweinat 3y 11m 2y 11m 21 Recruited age 14
Azari 18y 13y 6m ~20
Bayda 4y 3y 18
Namoa 3y 9m 2y 10m 18
Halis (Melbourne) 10y 7y 6m 21
Eriklioglu (Melbourne) 10y 7y 6m 26–30
Lawrence 6y 4y 6m
Dakkak 1y 8m 1y 3m

Most offenders aged between 18 and 21 at the time of their offences.

Street Dawah Recruitment Pattern

5 Court cases documenting street dawah
14–17 Recruitment age range (years)
25 Antisemitic imputations (Haddad/AMDC)
300–400 AMDC Friday prayer attendance

Five court cases explicitly document street dawah (Islamic street preaching) as a recruitment vector. Individuals recruited between ages 14 and 17:

The Federal Court found 25 antisemitic imputations against Wissam Haddad and the Al-Madina Dawah Centre. AMDC reported Friday prayer attendance of 300–400 people during the relevant period.

PIRA Dataset (Profiles of Individual Radicalisation in Australia)

261 Individuals in dataset
122–123 Variables tracked
91.7% Male
27 Average age (years)
83% Islamist/Jihadist ideology
9.6% Far-right ideology
3.9% Far-left ideology
>10% Under 18 (2014–2018 convictions)
100% Sunni-Islamist (youth convictions)
>50% Cases involving social media

The Profiles of Individual Radicalisation in Australia (PIRA) dataset, maintained by the University of Queensland, tracks 261 individuals across 122–123 variables. 91.7% male. Average age: 27.

Ideologically: 83% Islamist or Jihadist, 9.6% far-right, 3.9% far-left. More than 10% of terrorism-related convictions between 2014 and 2018 involved individuals under age 18—all Sunni-Islamist.

Online radicalisation documented in more than 50% of cases.

Post-Attack Misinformation

163,000+ Posts promoting false flag conspiracies
3.3B Potential reach
140,000+ Posts misidentifying attacker
+73% AFP Islam-related threats post-attack
+250% Anti-Muslim hate speech online
+1,300% Islamophobia increase (NSW since Oct 7)

After the Bondi Beach attack, misinformation spread rapidly. Analysis by Marc Owen Jones documented over 163,000 posts promoting false flag conspiracy theories, with a combined potential reach of 3.3 billion impressions. An additional 140,000+ posts misidentified the attacker, often naming individuals of Muslim background who had no connection to the attack.

The Australian Federal Police reported a 73% increase in Islam-related threats after the attack. Online monitoring recorded a 250% increase in anti-Muslim hate speech. In New South Wales, reported incidents of Islamophobia have increased by 1,300% since October 7, 2023.

Protest Data

85+ Successful rallies (Oct 2023–Dec 2025)
0 Terrorism charges from protests
97% Pro-Palestinian protests remaining peaceful
50,000–100,000 Sydney Harbour Bridge march (Aug 2025)

Between October 2023 and December 2025, the Palestine Action Group organised over 85 rallies across Australia. Zero terrorism-related charges filed in connection with any of these protests. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) indicates 97% of pro-Palestinian protests in Australia have remained peaceful.

In August 2025, a march across the Sydney Harbour Bridge drew between 50,000 and 100,000 participants—one of the largest demonstrations in Australian history.